### Meeting Overview The Whatcom County Council Climate Action and Natural Resources Committee met on July 22, 2025, to receive a comprehensive presentation on climate vulnerability assessment and adaptation strategies. The sole agenda item focused on the Future Shorelines Project, a three-year study examining sea level rise, coastal flooding, erosion, and riverine flooding impacts across Whatcom County, with Birch Bay serving as a pilot adaptation planning area. ### Key Terms and Concepts **Climate Overlay:** A proposed regulatory tool that would apply additional zoning rules to geographic areas exposed to climate hazards, potentially restricting new development in vulnerable zones. **Compound Flooding:** Water coming from both coastal and riverine sources simultaneously, particularly affecting areas like the lower Nooksack River where sea level rise meets increased river flows. **Vulnerability Assessment:** A systematic evaluation that considers asset exposure to hazards, sensitivity to impacts, and adaptive capacity to determine overall risk levels. **100-Year Flood:** A flood event with a 1% chance of occurring in any given year, though the probability accumulates over time (26% chance over a 30-year mortgage). **COSMOS Model:** A cutting-edge modeling system from the US Geological Survey that projects coastal storm impacts with different sea level rise scenarios. **Adaptation Pathways:** Strategic approaches categorized as relocate (moving assets from hazard areas), avoid (preventing development in risky areas), accommodate (living with flooding while reducing sensitivity), or protect (using structures like berms). **Bluff Recession:** Coastal erosion that causes land loss, projected to increase from current rates of 0.4-0.7 feet per year to potentially 0.9-1.4 feet annually by the 2080s. ### Key People at This Meeting | Name | Role / Affiliation | |---|---| | Kaylee Galloway | Committee Chair | | Chris Elder | Whatcom County Public Works, Senior Planner | | Rachel Johnson | Water Resources Engineer, Herrera Environmental Consultants | | Todd Donovan | Committee Member | | Mark Stremler | Committee Member | | Mark Personius | Planning and Development Services Director | ### Background Context This presentation represents the culmination of three years of collaborative planning involving multiple jurisdictions, tribes, state agencies, and federal partners. The project addresses a critical gap in state guidance for incorporating climate change impacts into local planning decisions. With $350,000 in Department of Ecology funding across two phases, the study builds on previous work to provide actionable data for policy decisions. The timing is particularly significant as Whatcom County updates its comprehensive plan and considers urban growth area expansions, making climate vulnerability data essential for informed decision-making about future development patterns. The broader context includes ongoing flooding challenges in areas like Birch Bay, where residents already experience regular high-tide flooding averaging 1.8 days per year. The study projects this could increase to 25 days annually with 3.3 feet of sea level rise, fundamentally changing what it means to live in these communities. ### What Happened — The Short Version Chris Elder opened by explaining the project's three-year timeline and collaborative approach involving county departments, cities, tribes, and state agencies. Rachel Johnson then delivered the main presentation, walking through methodology for assessing hundreds of thousands of data points representing vulnerable assets across the county. The modeling shows current FEMA floodplains expanding from 82 to 102 square miles in the future, affecting over 9,000 buildings, 90+ critical facilities, and 192 miles of roads. The Birch Bay pilot analysis revealed 1,371 residential parcels exposed to flooding or erosion by 2040, with another 860 at risk by the 2080s. The presentation outlined four main adaptation strategies and recommended policy changes including climate overlays to restrict new development in vulnerable areas while directing growth to safer locations. Council members engaged in detailed questioning about model accuracy, integration with comprehensive planning, cost considerations, and the relationship between this data and pending urban growth area proposals. The discussion revealed both enthusiasm for the scientific work and some skepticism about climate modeling reliability. ### What to Watch Next - Release of the final project report (expected the week following the meeting) - Integration of this data into comprehensive plan urban growth area decisions - Potential Development of climate overlay zoning regulations - Department of Ecology funding opportunities for additional adaptation planning in other county areas - Incorporation of findings into the Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan update ---