# Whatcom County Faces Climate Reality: Planning for Rising Waters and Vanishing Shores The stark reality of climate change came into sharp focus Tuesday morning as Whatcom County Council's Climate Action and Natural Resources Committee received a sobering presentation on what three years of intensive climate vulnerability research reveals about the county's future. In a detailed briefing that lasted nearly an hour, consultants and county staff laid out projections that will fundamentally reshape how the county approaches development, infrastructure planning, and community safety in the decades ahead. ## Meeting Overview Committee Chair Kaylee Galloway called the July 22, 2025 meeting to order at 9:50 a.m., with Council Members Todd Donovan and Mark Stremler joining her for what would prove to be one of the most consequential climate presentations the county has received. The second agenda item—a presentation on forest conservation funding opportunities—had been withdrawn, leaving the room's full attention focused on the Future Shorelines Project findings. Chris Elder, senior planner with Whatcom County Public Works, opened by acknowledging the collaborative nature of the three-year effort. "This is the culmination of what has been roughly three years of planning, wrapping up phase two of our kind of sea level rise and future River and flood vulnerability efforts," Elder explained. "It's been an awesome experience for me personally, just working with staff from multiple county departments, Emergency Management, Department of Health, planning, Public Works and others." The $350,000 project, funded through two grants from the State Department of Ecology, brought together an impressive coalition including Whatcom County, Lummi Nation, five cities, the Port of Bellingham, and multiple state and federal agencies. The scope reflected the urgency of the challenge: with limited state guidance on climate adaptation, local jurisdictions find themselves on the cutting edge of planning for an uncertain future. ## The Science of Rising Waters Rachel Johnson, a water resources engineer specializing in climate adaptation with Herrera Environmental Consultants, took the committee through the technical foundations of the assessment. The study examined five primary hazards: coastal flooding from storm surge and sea level rise, coastal erosion leading to bluff retreat, groundwater flooding from elevated water tables, riverine flooding from the Nooksack River system, and riverbank erosion and channel migration. The modeling incorporated the newest and best available science, including brand new USGS coastal storm modeling data and bluff recession projections. "Whatcom County was the first in the state to receive that data a couple years ago," Johnson noted, emphasizing the county's pioneering role in climate adaptation planning. The study examined two scenarios: a near-term projection with 0.8 feet of sea level rise and a 20-year coastal storm (roughly 1% chance of occurrence in the 2040s), and a mid-term scenario with 3.3 feet of sea level rise (1% chance by the 2080s). But Johnson was careful to explain what these probabilities actually mean over time. "The chance that a home floods at least once over a 30-year mortgage from 100-year flood is about 26%, and the chance that a home floods at least once over an average lifetime is about 55%," she explained, reading from weather.gov data that puts the seemingly small annual percentages in stark perspective. When Council Member Ben Elenbaas pressed on the confidence levels in the modeling, Johnson emphasized the scientific consensus behind the projections. "The uncertainty that we have is not a question of if the impacts are going to be felt. It is when they will be felt. They're changes that are already baked into our system based on the greenhouse gas emissions to date." ## A County Under Water The findings paint a dramatic picture of transformation. Currently, about 82 square miles fall within the FEMA 100-year floodplain. Under the future scenarios modeled, that expands to approximately 102 square miles—a 24% increase that translates to profound impacts on daily life and infrastructure. The numbers tell the story: over 192 miles of roads will be in the future floodplain, along with more than 90 critical facilities including wastewater treatment plants, schools, government buildings, police and fire stations. Nearly 9,000 buildings face potential flooding exposure. Johnson displayed detailed maps showing the current blue-shaded FEMA floodplain overlaid with purple areas representing future flooding zones. The visual impact was immediate—familiar communities and corridors disappearing under projected water levels. "Many of these were identified in each of these communities' hazard mitigation plans," Johnson noted about the critical facilities. The vulnerability extends beyond structures to essential services that communities depend on daily. ## Birch Bay: A Community at the Crossroads The study selected Birch Bay as a pilot community for detailed adaptation planning, and the findings there illustrate the challenges facing low-lying coastal areas across the county. The community's long history of flooding and recent investments like the Birch Bay berm made it an ideal test case for adaptation strategies. Johnson walked through increasingly frequent flooding scenarios. Currently, high tide flooding in Birch Bay averages about 1.8 days per year. With 0.8 feet of sea level rise, that could increase to four days annually by the 2040s. With 3.3 feet of rise, the community could face flooding 25 days per year. The erosion picture is equally stark. Historic bluff erosion rates of 0.4 to 0.7 feet annually could accelerate to 0.6 to 0.9 feet in the 2040s, and potentially 0.9 to 1.4 feet annually by the 2080s. "There are 1,371 parcels exposed to inundation or erosion by 2040," Johnson reported, with an additional 860 potentially affected by the 2080s. When Council Member Todd Donovan asked whether these represented actual development capacity, Johnson clarified they were simply residential parcels, not necessarily development potential. The distinction proved important for the afternoon's Urban Growth Area discussions. As Donovan noted, "We're going to be looking at the UGA proposals for this afternoon," referring to comprehensive plan updates that would need to account for these climate projections. ## Four Pathways Forward Johnson presented a framework for climate adaptation organized around four strategies: relocate, avoid, accommodate, and protect. Each approach offers different benefits and challenges, and most effective adaptation plans combine multiple strategies over time. Relocation involves moving people and assets out of hazard areas—the most effective long-term solution but often the most costly and politically challenging. Avoidance prevents new development in vulnerable areas through zoning and land use controls. Accommodation adapts to flooding through modifications like elevating buildings or infrastructure. Protection reduces impacts through structures like the Birch Bay berm. "It's much harder to remove a building once it's already there," Johnson emphasized, highlighting the importance of making adaptation decisions now rather than waiting for impacts to manifest. The presentation included a timeline showing how strategies might evolve: temporary flood protection and emergency response in the short term, revised codes and policies in the mid-term, and longer-term solutions like relocating utilities and development outside hazardous areas. ## Policy Tools for an Uncertain Future One of the study's key recommendations involves creating climate overlays—regulatory tools that would apply additional development restrictions in areas exposed to climate hazards. These overlays could be defined by mid-term scenarios (2080s projections) and could restrict new development while directing growth to safer areas. For Birch Bay specifically, recommendations include updating zoning outside overlay areas to provide development opportunities, expanding conservation easement programs, implementing transfer of development rights programs, and increasing support for infrastructure relocation. The affordable housing implications drew particular attention. "With this, we found the importance of increasing the diversity and affordability of housing outside of the hazardous area," Johnson noted, emphasizing the need to restrict new vulnerable housing types in climate overlays while enabling affordable development in safer locations. ## Technical Challenges and Skepticism The presentation sparked technical questions and some skepticism from council members. Elder acknowledged that the current modeling doesn't capture compound flooding from streams like Terrell Creek in Birch Bay, noting this as a limitation that could underestimate actual flood impacts. Council Member Stremler raised questions about "perfect storm" scenarios involving multiple simultaneous hazards. Johnson confirmed that the USGS modeling incorporates sea level rise, high tides, storm surge, and wave action, but acknowledged the challenge of modeling every possible combination of factors. Council Member Elenbaas expressed more fundamental concerns about model reliability. "Since I've been paying attention, which has been, you know, 30 years, and a historical look back on climate modeling, I don't know that it instills confidence to the degree that you guys have confidence here," he said. Johnson responded by noting that sea level rise has been linear over the past 100 years—about 0.8 feet at the Seattle tide gauge—but emphasized that the rate is accelerating due to thermal expansion of warming oceans and melting land-based ice. "The uncertainty really comes down to how quickly are we going to see some of those catastrophic changes with the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica," she explained. Elder added that the projections incorporate hundreds of global climate models averaged together, providing higher confidence than single-model predictions. ## Integration with County Planning A critical question emerged about how this climate science integrates with ongoing comprehensive planning efforts. Donovan asked whether Planning and Development Services was using the same data for Urban Growth Area proposals being considered that afternoon. "We have shared all the data from this report with SCJ consultant, primary consultant for the comp plan," Elder confirmed. Mark Personius, Planning and Development Services Director, confirmed remotely that "those maps are based on this study and the model." This integration proves crucial as the county considers expansion of development areas. The climate data will directly inform decisions about where future growth should occur and what restrictions might apply in vulnerable areas. ## Community Engagement and Next Steps The study included community engagement, particularly in Birch Bay, with virtual information sessions and in-person workshops where residents provided input on adaptation strategies. The team divided Birch Bay into six areas based on their vulnerability profiles and developed adaptation pathways for each. Looking ahead, Elder indicated that the Department of Ecology plans to offer additional funding for similar work, allowing the county to extend detailed adaptation planning to other vulnerable communities or deepen analysis in areas already studied. The study produced multiple deliverables: a comprehensive report, a public story map highlighting findings, detailed maps, a data explorer with geospatial information, and an adaptation strategy library with nearly 60 strategies and implementation examples from other jurisdictions. ## The Weight of Future Decisions Chair Galloway captured the session's significance in her closing remarks: "This is both exciting to know that the work is being done, and equally terrifying that you know this isn't our lifetime, a lot of our lifetimes, so we're certainly our children in their lifetime." She emphasized the urgency of moving from assessment to action: "I hope that we can sort of move forward with some of the policy recommendations that have come out of this body of work. So I'll look forward and following up and establishing a pathway for getting this climate overlay idea docketed." The timing proved intentional, with afternoon discussions of Urban Growth Area proposals benefiting from the morning's climate briefing. "I'm just really grateful to have had this presentation first, and then that'll kind of inform us as we move into this next body of work," Galloway noted. ## Emergency Management and Community Preparedness Council Member Jon Scanlon raised important questions about emergency preparedness and community-level resilience building. He noted successful neighborhood mapping exercises in his area and asked whether similar community organizing was occurring in newly identified vulnerable areas. Elder acknowledged the intersection between climate planning and emergency response, noting that Holly Salk from Emergency Management had been actively involved throughout the project. "Certainly the emergency response intersection with planning is an area that we're trying to explore further in the future," he said. Scanlon highlighted free resources from the state military department for neighborhood mapping and mutual aid organizing, drawing on his previous experience with humanitarian response work following disasters like Hurricane Katrina. "They saw that, you know, after, say, Katrina, doing that. It helped for some of the next storms," he observed. ## A Regional Pioneer Johnson concluded by emphasizing Whatcom County's leadership role: "Whatcom County is really leading the way on thinking about climate vulnerability and resilience and adaptation planning." She noted that the Department of Ecology, as both project participant and funder, is watching closely to see how the county implements its findings. This pioneering status brings both opportunity and responsibility. As one of the first jurisdictions to receive cutting-edge USGS modeling data and incorporate it into comprehensive planning, Whatcom County's decisions will likely influence climate adaptation approaches across Washington state and beyond. ## Adjourning into Uncertainty The meeting adjourned at 10:49 a.m., but the conversations it initiated will continue through comprehensive plan updates, budget discussions, and zoning decisions for years to come. The technical presentation successfully conveyed both the scientific certainty of climate change impacts and the complex policy challenges they create. As council members prepared for their afternoon Urban Growth Area discussions, they carried with them detailed maps showing which communities face the greatest vulnerability and clearest timelines for when difficult decisions can no longer be delayed. The science has provided the framework; the politics of implementation lies ahead. The session exemplified the intersection of technical expertise and democratic governance that defines climate adaptation planning. Scientists can model rising seas and shifting flood patterns, but elected officials must decide how communities respond—where growth is directed, what infrastructure is protected, and who bears the costs of adaptation. For Whatcom County, Tuesday morning marked a transition from studying climate impacts to planning for them. The committee received not just data but a roadmap for decisions that will shape the county's landscape and communities for generations to come.

### Meeting Overview The Whatcom County Council Climate Action and Natural Resources Committee met on July 22, 2025, to receive a comprehensive presentation on climate vulnerability assessment and adaptation strategies. The sole agenda item focused on the Future Shorelines Project, a three-year study examining sea level rise, coastal flooding, erosion, and riverine flooding impacts across Whatcom County, with Birch Bay serving as a pilot adaptation planning area. ### Key Terms and Concepts **Climate Overlay:** A proposed regulatory tool that would apply additional zoning rules to geographic areas exposed to climate hazards, potentially restricting new development in vulnerable zones. **Compound Flooding:** Water coming from both coastal and riverine sources simultaneously, particularly affecting areas like the lower Nooksack River where sea level rise meets increased river flows. **Vulnerability Assessment:** A systematic evaluation that considers asset exposure to hazards, sensitivity to impacts, and adaptive capacity to determine overall risk levels. **100-Year Flood:** A flood event with a 1% chance of occurring in any given year, though the probability accumulates over time (26% chance over a 30-year mortgage). **COSMOS Model:** A cutting-edge modeling system from the US Geological Survey that projects coastal storm impacts with different sea level rise scenarios. **Adaptation Pathways:** Strategic approaches categorized as relocate (moving assets from hazard areas), avoid (preventing development in risky areas), accommodate (living with flooding while reducing sensitivity), or protect (using structures like berms). **Bluff Recession:** Coastal erosion that causes land loss, projected to increase from current rates of 0.4-0.7 feet per year to potentially 0.9-1.4 feet annually by the 2080s. ### Key People at This Meeting | Name | Role / Affiliation | |---|---| | Kaylee Galloway | Committee Chair | | Chris Elder | Whatcom County Public Works, Senior Planner | | Rachel Johnson | Water Resources Engineer, Herrera Environmental Consultants | | Todd Donovan | Committee Member | | Mark Stremler | Committee Member | | Mark Personius | Planning and Development Services Director | ### Background Context This presentation represents the culmination of three years of collaborative planning involving multiple jurisdictions, tribes, state agencies, and federal partners. The project addresses a critical gap in state guidance for incorporating climate change impacts into local planning decisions. With $350,000 in Department of Ecology funding across two phases, the study builds on previous work to provide actionable data for policy decisions. The timing is particularly significant as Whatcom County updates its comprehensive plan and considers urban growth area expansions, making climate vulnerability data essential for informed decision-making about future development patterns. The broader context includes ongoing flooding challenges in areas like Birch Bay, where residents already experience regular high-tide flooding averaging 1.8 days per year. The study projects this could increase to 25 days annually with 3.3 feet of sea level rise, fundamentally changing what it means to live in these communities. ### What Happened — The Short Version Chris Elder opened by explaining the project's three-year timeline and collaborative approach involving county departments, cities, tribes, and state agencies. Rachel Johnson then delivered the main presentation, walking through methodology for assessing hundreds of thousands of data points representing vulnerable assets across the county. The modeling shows current FEMA floodplains expanding from 82 to 102 square miles in the future, affecting over 9,000 buildings, 90+ critical facilities, and 192 miles of roads. The Birch Bay pilot analysis revealed 1,371 residential parcels exposed to flooding or erosion by 2040, with another 860 at risk by the 2080s. The presentation outlined four main adaptation strategies and recommended policy changes including climate overlays to restrict new development in vulnerable areas while directing growth to safer locations. Council members engaged in detailed questioning about model accuracy, integration with comprehensive planning, cost considerations, and the relationship between this data and pending urban growth area proposals. The discussion revealed both enthusiasm for the scientific work and some skepticism about climate modeling reliability. ### What to Watch Next - Release of the final project report (expected the week following the meeting) - Integration of this data into comprehensive plan urban growth area decisions - Potential Development of climate overlay zoning regulations - Department of Ecology funding opportunities for additional adaptation planning in other county areas - Incorporation of findings into the Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan update ---

**Q:** What is the total funding amount received for the Future Shorelines Project? **A:** $350,000 total: $100,000 for phase one and $250,000 for phase two, both from the State Department of Ecology. **Q:** How much will Whatcom County's floodplain expand according to the modeling? **A:** From 82 square miles currently to 102 square miles in the future scenarios, a roughly 24% increase. **Q:** What are the four main adaptation strategy categories presented? **A:** Relocate (move assets from hazard areas), avoid (prevent development in risky areas), accommodate (live with flooding while reducing sensitivity), and protect (use structures like berms). **Q:** How many residential parcels in Birch Bay are projected to be at risk by 2040? **A:** 1,371 residential parcels exposed to inundation or erosion, with an additional 860 more by the 2080s. **Q:** What is the current average annual high-tide flooding in Birch Bay? **A:** 1.8 days per year over the past 10 years, projected to increase to 4 days by the 2040s and potentially 25 days with 3.3 feet of sea level rise. **Q:** What is a climate overlay? **A:** A regulatory tool that applies additional zoning rules to areas exposed to climate hazards, potentially restricting new development while directing growth elsewhere. **Q:** How many critical facilities will be in the future floodplain? **A:** Over 90 critical facilities, including wastewater treatment plants, schools, police and fire stations, and utility infrastructure. **Q:** What is the projected bluff erosion rate increase for Birch Bay? **A:** From current rates of 0.4-0.7 feet per year to 0.6-0.9 feet in the 2040s and 0.9-1.4 feet annually by the 2080s. **Q:** Who were the main consulting partners on this project? **A:** Herrera Environmental Consultants led the team, working with Makers Architecture and Planning and NHC hydraulic consultants. **Q:** What is compound flooding? **A:** Water coming from both coastal and riverine sources simultaneously, affecting areas like the lower Nooksack River where sea level rise meets increased river flows. **Q:** How far up the Nooksack River does compound flooding extend? **A:** Approximately to Ferndale, where coastal influences meet riverine flooding conditions. **Q:** What percentage chance represents a "100-year flood"? **A:** A 1% chance of occurring in any given year, though this probability accumulates to 26% over a 30-year period. **Q:** How many miles of roads will be in the future floodplain? **A:** Over 192 miles of roads will be exposed to flooding in future scenarios. **Q:** What was the sea level rise amount over the past 100 years? **A:** Approximately 0.8 feet (less than one foot) of linear rise, as measured at the Seattle tide gauge. **Q:** Which area was selected as the pilot for adaptation planning? **A:** Birch Bay, chosen for its low elevation, flooding history, recent infrastructure investments, and location within the urban growth area. ---