# The Science of Justice Capacity — Projecting Whatcom County's Jail Needs to 2050 The numbers tell a story of rapid growth. County population expected to more than triple over the next quarter-century. Jail admissions fluctuating but trending upward. A community grappling with the fundamental tension between building adequate public safety infrastructure and avoiding the "if you build it, they will come" trap that has plagued correctional facilities nationwide. On this Tuesday morning in Council Chambers, Whatcom County's Criminal Justice and Public Safety Committee gathered to hear from Eric Ratts, a national expert who has conducted more than 100 jail capacity studies across the country. His presentation would attempt to answer the million-dollar questions facing the county: How many beds should the new Public Health, Safety and Justice facility contain? How do you build for future need without overbuilding? And can smart policies today reduce the population requiring incarceration tomorrow? ## Meeting Overview The Criminal Justice and Public Safety Committee meeting on July 22, 2025, was called to order at 11 a.m. by Committee Chair Barry Buchanan. Present were committee members Tyler Byrd and Jon Scanlon, with additional council members Todd Donovan, Ben Elenbaas, Kaylee Galloway, and Mark Stremler also attending the hybrid session. The single agenda item was a presentation by Eric Ratts of DLZ Architecture and Engineering on updated independent jail capacity analysis for Whatcom County's planned new facility. Deputy Executive Kayla Schott-Bresler introduced the presentation, emphasizing the community's longstanding discussions about jail capacity and the challenge of balancing adequate public safety infrastructure with concerns about overbuilding and over-incarceration. ## The Statistical Foundation — Understanding the Data Behind Prison Projections Eric Ratts opened by establishing his credentials: a vice president with DLZ who has been conducting these studies since 2000, with more than 105 capacity studies and work on over 150 jail projects during that time. His approach centers on what he calls "time series models" — statistical analysis that attempts to predict future jail population needs based on comprehensive historical data. "What we're trying to do is we're trying to look at basically, a lot of data that shows all the different characteristics of the folks that are in your jail facility," Ratts explained. "And we're trying to understand why they're there, how long they're there, what their you know, your average daily population, your peak population, as well as what your low population." The analysis extends to 2050 and focuses on four primary data points that drive jail population projections: county population trends, admissions to the county jail, average daily population (ADP), and average length of stay (ALOS). Each factor carries different weight in the final calculations, represented in Ratts' presentation through varying shades of blue — the darker the color, the more significant the impact on capacity needs. County population growth emerged as the darkest blue variable — the most intense driver of future jail needs. Whatcom County's explosive growth trajectory shows the population more than tripling from historical baselines to projections 15 years out. This demographic pressure creates the fundamental backdrop against which all other variables operate. Council member Todd Donovan pressed Ratts on the methodology: "So when you're doing this forecasting models, is there is the assumption, like, it's going to be a linear trend in terms of whether it's population, whether the variables are thrown in there, or should we be thinking, like, I guess that's, that's my first basic question is, like, it's, are we planning based on whatever we're seeing in the model, that the forecasts for the numbers you're going to be showing us is a linear increase?" "So the it when you do statistical models, it is usually in a linear type of progression for what your numbers are," Ratts replied. "However, what we have also looked at is things that you are doing currently, as well as you are doing success rates with your folks that are incarcerated." This acknowledgment of linear progression raised immediate questions about the model's ability to account for policy innovations, program successes, or systemic changes that could bend the curve of incarceration demand. ## Whatcom County's Current Performance — A Bright Spot in Length of Stay One area where Whatcom County excels, according to Ratts' analysis, is average length of stay — how long individuals remain incarcerated once admitted to the facility. The county's ALOS significantly outperforms national averages, reflecting what Ratts characterized as exceptional coordination between criminal justice partners. "The one thing that I would say is a is a big driver, and something I will give Whatcom County a big high five, is how you have all worked together to keep your numbers under control," Ratts told the committee. "Your average length of stay is much lower than what a national average would be." This performance creates both opportunity and vulnerability. The relatively short stays mean the jail system processes people more efficiently, reducing the total population at any given time. But Ratts warned that this positive trend depends on continued collaboration between law enforcement, courts, prosecutors, defense attorneys, and social services. "I would also encourage that is, as you consider building a new facility, is that you keep your same practices as far as everyone working together to make sure that you're you're the average daily population is the right number, as well as your everyone is having the ability or the right to get through the justice system," he said. The flip side of this success creates planning challenges. If future policy changes, personnel turnover, or system breakdowns cause average length of stay to increase, the jail population could spike rapidly. "If, if, some reason, something changes in that and your average length of stay gets longer... if that average length of stay gets longer, what that results in is that you need more beds," Ratts explained. ## The Suppressed Demand Question — What We Don't Know Perhaps the most challenging aspect of jail capacity planning involves what Ratts calls "suppressed data" — the unknowable number of how many people would be incarcerated if the facility had unlimited capacity. Current overcrowding and admission caps mask the true demand for jail beds, making projections both art and science. "The hardest number, and I've shared this in other presentations, the hardest number to look at is, is the suppressed data, or data that's unknown for the inside your community, is that, if you had a for an example, if you had a 500 bed jail today, how many people would be in jail, or if you had a 600 bed, how many People would be in jail," Ratts explained. His analysis suggests that without current capacity constraints, Whatcom County would house approximately 400 individuals on any given day — significantly more than current capacity allows. This "suppressed demand" forms the baseline for all future projections, accounting for arrests that currently result in immediate release due to space limitations. ## The Three Scenarios — 2030, 2040, and 2050 Projections Ratts presented three timeframe scenarios, each building on the previous projection with additional complexity and growth factors: **2030 Projection: 480 Rated Beds** The near-term projection assumes 400 individuals requiring incarceration, plus a 20% classification factor recommended by the National Institute of Corrections. This 20% buffer accounts for peak population periods and the operational reality that jails function most effectively at 80% capacity, allowing for proper classification and separation of different inmate populations. "We believe that the when gels are at 80% occupancy or 80% utilized, that is typically when the facility is working at its absolute best," Ratts explained. "And what I mean by that is that when you have a peak factor of there is a special, unique event or a period of time that your numbers peak... you have that growth opportunity to get to that 100% to be able to house various different folks in your in your facility." **2040 Projection: 624 Rated Beds** The intermediate projection incorporates both demographic growth and operational adjustments expected as the county adapts to operating a new facility. Ratts suggested this timeline allows for policy refinements, procedural improvements, and the natural evolution of correctional practices. **2050 Projection: 720 Rated Beds** The long-term scenario assumes slightly slower growth rates as the county's explosive expansion moderates and correctional programs mature. However, this projection carries the highest uncertainty, given the extended timeline and potential for significant legislative, social, or technological changes. ## The Architecture of Rehabilitation — Special Housing vs. General Population One of the most significant aspects of Ratts' presentation focused on the different types of housing within the proposed facility. Rather than simply building generic jail cells, the analysis breaks down bed needs into distinct categories serving different correctional and rehabilitation purposes. **Orientation Beds (36 beds in all scenarios)** These serve as the intake point for all new arrestees, providing 48-72 hours for medical evaluation, mental health assessment, and initial classification. Ratts emphasized the importance of this screening process for both liability protection and effective treatment planning. "You have an arrestee that comes to your facility, that is admitted into your facility, and they may be on a suicide watch. They may be someone that has never been to the facility, or has never been incarcerated in their life," Ratts explained. The orientation process helps determine appropriate placement and needed services. **Special Housing Needs (156 beds in all scenarios)** Perhaps the most controversial aspect of the projections, special housing addresses the complex needs of individuals with mental health issues, substance abuse disorders, trauma histories, and other specialized requirements. Ratts' data shows that 65% of jail inmates have active substance use disorders, with similar high percentages experiencing mental health challenges. Council member Jon Scanlon pressed on this point, noting that these percentages suggest the special housing allocation might be too small. "I would think that if, if these numbers here 65% of inmates having an active substance use disorder, that would mean you're going to have folks in the general population" with these issues, Scanlon observed. Ratts acknowledged the complexity: "What we're hoping is that through orientation, special housing, again, you can treat you can diagnose those, you can start to treat those, and then to offer them programs to be successful inside the facility, and then to move on into the into the community." The special housing units would be physically different from general population areas — smaller, with different design elements, enhanced staffing ratios, and specialized programming spaces. Ratts described these as more expensive to build and operate but essential for effective rehabilitation. **General Population (288-528 beds depending on scenario)** The remainder of the facility would house individuals who have progressed through orientation and either don't require special housing or have successfully completed specialized programs. These areas can be designed with flexibility to accommodate both male and female populations as needs fluctuate. ## The Build-It-And-They-Will-Come Warning Throughout the presentation, Ratts repeatedly returned to a cautionary theme that resonates through correctional planning nationwide: the tendency for jail populations to expand to fill available capacity, regardless of actual need. "Way more often than not, those beds start to get filled up. And what I would say is, because they're just simply our beds, build it and they will come. It happens way too often," Ratts warned. "What I would say is Keep doing what you're doing, keep offering the programs, offer more. Do those right things, and you will see that the transition of the folks in the facility to back to the community is more successful." This phenomenon creates a fundamental tension in capacity planning. Build too few beds, and the system becomes dangerously overcrowded, potentially violating constitutional standards and compromising public safety. Build too many, and the facility may encourage unnecessary incarceration, undermining rehabilitation goals and community values. The solution, according to Ratts, lies not just in the number of beds but in their design and intended use: "What I would say is always consider, always encourage, always promote building the right type of beds... just building more general population beds and not building that the special housing needs. You're not going to build your facility large enough because you're not meeting the needs of the folks that are in the facilities today." ## The Policy-Design Connection — How Operations Drive Architecture Council member Mark Stremler identified what may be the most crucial aspect of the entire planning process: "Yeah, thank you. Yeah. Thank you, Eric. One thing you said caught my attention in particular, and you said policies and procedures drive design. And I would really like to kind of explore that more." Ratts emphasized that this principle — policies and procedures driving design rather than the reverse — represents a fundamental shift in correctional planning philosophy. Traditional approaches often built generic facilities and then adapted operations to fit the physical plant. Modern best practices reverse this relationship. "You know your policies and procedures will drive your design. The design does not drive your policies and procedures," Ratts explained. "So what's your intended goal? From wanting to how you want to operate the facility? That's how it's designed." This approach requires extensive front-end planning about operational philosophy, staffing models, programming priorities, and rehabilitation goals. It also suggests that current policy decisions about diversion programs, court processing, and alternative sanctions could significantly impact facility size requirements. ## The Financial Reality Check — Building the Right Beds Within Budget Constraints Council member Todd Donovan brought the discussion back to fiscal reality: "Eric, this presentation really helps me understand a lot more than I did, think I did before. But at some point this is going to kind of come down to how much money do we have." This tension between ideal capacity and available funding threads through every aspect of facility planning. Ratts acknowledged that counties inevitably face budget constraints that may preclude building the theoretically optimal facility size. "You're going to have a set just like everyone. You will have a set amount of money that you're able to spend on the project," Ratts said. "What I would say is always consider, always encourage, always promote building the right type of beds... Whatever you can build, make sure you're building the right beds for the right reasons." This prioritization framework suggests building smaller but more appropriate facilities rather than larger generic ones. Specialized housing units, while more expensive per bed, may provide better long-term outcomes and require fewer total beds if they successfully reduce recidivism. ## The Next Steps — From Analysis to Decision Deputy Executive Kayla Schott-Bresler outlined the decision-making timeline following Ratts' presentation. "This jail capacity analysis will be shared with our design builder, who we're going to bring on in August," she explained. "The design builder will develop a few scenarios that have sort of different sort of capital and operational projections, both in terms of size as well as configuration in the facility." Those scenarios will present County Council with specific tradeoffs between capacity, cost, and operational philosophy. The selection of a preferred model represents the key decision point for elected officials, with "plenty of time" promised for deliberation. ## The Diversion Question — Can Policy Reduce the Need? Council member Scanlon raised perhaps the most important question for long-term planning: whether current investments in diversion programs, court capacity, or other interventions could reduce future jail population projections. "If we can make investments now, let's say it's advocating with the legislature for another judge, if that investment can help us to decrease the length of stay of the daily population, maybe that'll impact these numbers," Scanlon suggested. Committee Chair Barry Buchanan suggested the Integrated Policing and Rehabilitation Task Force (IPRTF) could analyze these opportunities. Ratts' models appear to assume current practices continue unchanged, potentially missing opportunities for policy interventions that could reduce capacity needs. This possibility represents both opportunity and risk. Successful diversion programs could make the facility smaller than projected. But if such programs fail to materialize or prove less effective than hoped, the county could face severe overcrowding in a facility sized for optimistic policy outcomes. ## The Human Dimension — Building for Rehabilitation, Not Just Containment Throughout the technical discussion of capacity projections and budget constraints, Ratts consistently returned to the human purpose of correctional facilities. His emphasis on trauma-informed design, specialized programming spaces, and graduated housing progression reflects a broader shift in correctional philosophy. "What we're trying to do is to help them be successful and through the rehabilitation so they can transition back to the community as hopefully a more successful rehabilitized individual," Ratts explained. This rehabilitation focus directly impacts facility design and capacity requirements. Traditional jail models might house individuals in generic cells with minimal programming. The specialized housing approach requires more complex facilities but potentially serves fewer people more effectively. The tension between these approaches — efficiency versus effectiveness, containment versus rehabilitation — runs through every aspect of capacity planning and will ultimately shape both the facility design and its impact on the community. ## Closing and What's Ahead The meeting adjourned at 12:04 p.m., with committee members clearly wrestling with the complex tradeoffs presented. The presentation provided crucial technical foundation for upcoming decisions while highlighting the need for deeper policy discussions about diversion programs, operational philosophies, and community priorities. Several follow-up actions emerged from the discussion: potential requests to the IPRTF for analysis of population reduction strategies, further exploration of policies and procedures that drive design requirements, and continued dialogue about balancing rehabilitation goals with capacity needs. The August selection of a design-builder will mark the transition from theoretical analysis to concrete planning. But the fundamental questions raised in this session — How much is enough? What kind of facility does the community want? Can smart policies reduce the need for beds? — will continue to shape discussions as Whatcom County moves toward one of its largest infrastructure investments in decades. The numbers may tell the story of growth and need, but the ultimate facility will reflect the community's values about justice, rehabilitation, and second chances. That conversation is just beginning.

### Meeting Overview The Criminal Justice and Public Safety Committee met on July 22, 2025 to receive a presentation on independent jail capacity analysis for Whatcom County's planned Public Health Safety and Justice facility. Committee Chair Barry Buchanan led the meeting with committee members Tyler Byrd and Jon Scanlon, while Council members Todd Donovan, Ben Elenbaas, Kaylee Galloway, and Mark Stremler also participated. ### Key Terms and Concepts **Average Daily Population (ADP):** The typical number of inmates housed in a jail facility each day, calculated over time periods to identify trends and capacity needs. **Average Length of Stay (ALOS):** How long inmates remain in jail on average, which directly impacts bed utilization and overall capacity requirements. **80% Rule:** A jail management principle stating that facilities operate most efficiently when at 80% capacity, providing flexibility for peak periods and proper inmate classification. **Classification Factor:** A 20% capacity buffer to handle population peaks and properly separate inmates by housing needs (male/female, risk levels, special needs). **Special Housing Units:** Smaller housing areas designed for inmates with specific needs like mental health issues, substance abuse disorders, trauma, or requiring protective custody. **General Population:** The main housing areas where inmates are placed after orientation and classification, designed for inmates who don't require specialized housing. **Orientation Beds:** Initial housing for new arrivals (48-72 hours) where inmates undergo medical checks, classification assessments, and evaluation for proper housing placement. **Gender Responsive Design:** Jail design features that accommodate the different needs and experiences of male and female inmates. ### Key People at This Meeting | Name | Role / Affiliation | |---|---| | Barry Buchanan | Committee Chair | | Tyler Byrd | Committee Member | | Jon Scanlon | Committee Member | | Eric Ratts | Vice President, DLZ Architecture and Engineering (Consultant) | | Kayla Schott-Bresler | Deputy Executive, Whatcom County | | Adam Johnson | Project Manager, STV | | Todd Donovan | Council Member | | Ben Elenbaas | Council Member | | Kaylee Galloway | Council Member | | Mark Stremler | Council Member | ### Background Context Whatcom County voters approved funding for a new Public Health Safety and Justice facility, but the exact jail capacity was left to be determined through this professional analysis. The county faces significant population growth that will triple over the next 30+ years, creating pressure for adequate jail capacity. However, the community wants to avoid both over-building (which increases costs and potentially unnecessary incarceration) and under-building (which fails to meet public safety needs). The county currently operates with jail capacity constraints and has worked to keep average length of stay below national averages through collaborative criminal justice practices. This analysis will inform the design-build process starting in August 2025, when scenarios will be developed for county council consideration. ### What Happened — The Short Version Jail capacity expert Eric Ratts presented projections showing Whatcom County needs approximately 480 beds by 2030, 624 beds by 2040, and 720 beds by 2050. His analysis recommends building orientation and special housing capacity (192 beds total) immediately for the full 2050 projection, but adding general population beds in phases. For 2030, this means 288 general population beds plus the 192 specialized beds. The analysis emphasized building "the right types of beds" rather than just more general population. Special housing units for inmates with mental health needs, substance abuse disorders, trauma, and other issues should be prioritized, as they serve the majority of the jail population and support successful reentry. Council members questioned how policy changes could reduce jail population and asked the Integrated Public Safety Response Task Force (IPRTF) to analyze factors that could lower average daily population and length of stay. ### What to Watch Next - August 2025: Design-builder comes on board to develop scenarios - Fall 2025: County budget discussions that could include investments in programs affecting jail population - Future presentations to County Council with facility size and cost options - IPRTF analysis of factors that could reduce jail population through policy changes ---

**Q:** What are the four key data types Eric Ratts analyzes for jail capacity projections? **A:** County population trends, admissions to county jail, average daily population (ADP), and average length of stay (ALOS). **Q:** What is the recommended jail capacity for Whatcom County by 2030? **A:** 480 total beds: 288 general population, 36 orientation, and 156 special housing beds. **Q:** What is the "80% rule" in jail management? **A:** Jails operate most efficiently at 80% capacity, with the remaining 20% providing flexibility for population peaks and proper inmate classification. **Q:** How many jail capacity studies has Eric Ratts completed in his career? **A:** About 105 studies since 2000, plus work on over 150 jail projects since his first internship in 1987. **Q:** What stays constant across all three projection periods (2030, 2040, 2050)? **A:** Orientation beds (36) and special housing beds (156) remain the same, while general population beds increase. **Q:** What percentage of jail inmates have active substance use disorders according to the study? **A:** 65% of inmates have an active substance use disorder. **Q:** Which committee members were present for this meeting? **A:** Barry Buchanan (Chair), Tyler Byrd, and Jon Scanlon, with other council members also participating. **Q:** What is the projected jail capacity need by 2050? **A:** 720 beds total: 528 general population, 36 orientation, and 156 special housing. **Q:** How long should inmates typically spend in orientation housing? **A:** 48 to 72 hours for medical checks, classification, and proper housing placement. **Q:** What happens after this capacity analysis is completed? **A:** The design-builder (starting in August 2025) will create scenarios with different capital and operational costs for council consideration. **Q:** Why does the study recommend building special housing and core services for 2050 immediately? **A:** To avoid having to add them later in areas not suited for these functions, and because they represent core infrastructure needs. **Q:** What is "gender responsive design" in jail facilities? **A:** Design features that provide different amenities and environments to meet the distinct needs of male and female inmates. **Q:** What could affect the accuracy of these projections over time? **A:** Legislative changes, policy modifications, changes in diversion programs, or shifts in county demographics. **Q:** What is Deputy Executive Schott-Bresler's role in this process? **A:** She introduced the presentation and will coordinate with the design-builder to develop facility scenarios for council consideration. **Q:** What did Council Member Scanlon suggest the IPRTF should analyze? **A:** Factors that influence average daily population and length of stay to identify investments that could reduce jail population. **Q:** How much growth is Whatcom County expected to experience? **A:** The county will more than triple in population over the next 30+ years. **Q:** What makes special housing units more expensive than general population? **A:** They require higher staff-to-inmate ratios, smaller housing units, and specialized design features. **Q:** What is the typical goal for orientation housing duration? **A:** 48-72 hours, though some inmates may need longer depending on their needs. **Q:** What philosophy does Eric Ratts emphasize about jail construction? **A:** "Build it and they will come" - extra beds tend to get filled, so building the right types of beds is crucial. **Q:** What will determine the final decision on jail capacity? **A:** County Council will choose from scenarios developed by the design-builder showing different size options with their costs. ---