# City Planning Commission Wrestles with Growth Strategy for Bellingham's Future In a sprawling three-hour work session that felt more like a comprehensive planning seminar than a typical commission meeting, Bellingham's Planning Commission dove deep into the complex mathematics and policy questions that will shape the city's growth strategy over the next 20 years. With only four commissioners present on September 5, 2024 — Mike Estes chairing, along with Barbara Plaskett, Jed Ballew, and Scott Jones — the group worked through dense technical presentations about land capacity, zoning reform, and the fundamental question of how much growth Bellingham should accommodate. Chris Behee, Long Range Division Manager, led the commissioners through what he called "continuing to add detail to these conversations" as the city progresses through its comprehensive plan update, now called the Bellingham Plan. The evening was structured around four key areas: countywide growth projections and Bellingham's share, land capacity methodology, preliminary capacity estimates, and growth strategy options. ## The Numbers Game: Population Growth and Housing Demand The foundation of the discussion rested on projections from the Leland Report commissioned by Whatcom County. Under the state's Office of Financial Management medium projection — historically the most accurate predictor for Whatcom County — the region expects to add 56,914 people by 2045. Using the state Department of Commerce's Housing for All Planning Tool, that population growth translates to a need for 31,334 new housing units countywide. The critical question facing Bellingham is what percentage of that growth the city should accommodate. Historically, from 2013 to 2023, Bellingham has absorbed about 49% of all new housing built in Whatcom County. At that pace, the city would need to plan for 15,750 new housing units over the next 20 years — roughly 707 units per year. But Behee presented commissioners with a menu of more ambitious scenarios. What if Bellingham took on 55% of countywide growth? That would mean 17,234 housing units, or 783 per year. At 60%, the city would need to accommodate 18,800 units, or 854 annually. "There might be some good policy reasons why we decide to maybe push higher than that," Behee explained, citing growth management principles that encourage urban concentration over rural sprawl. "Growth management encou…